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Friday, May 22, 2009
Fighting with Pizza Cutter
Eric brings up previously posted research by Pizza, as readers talk about Ibanez’ hot start, and I chime in:
I have this ongoing fight with Pizza (well, not so much a fight, as I keep punching Pizza, and he keeps sidestepping me… eventually, I will make contact, or I’ll get tired) about showing these results.
Take the HR/FB which “stabilizes” at r=.70, when PA=300. The next question of course is “so what can I do with this?”
Well, I like to get things to r=.50. You’ll see the reason in a minute. If r=.70, when PA=300, then r=.50 when PA=130. It’s not important how I got that for now.
Ok, so what can you do with that?
This means that you can add 130 PA of league average HR/FB to any player, to get an estimate of his true talent.
Ibanez has 173 PA, which means you would take 57% of his current HR/FB rate, and 43% of the league average, to get a best estimate (presuming of course that you have NO OTHER data on him… which is not true, since we do have his career).
This is why I always implore Pizza to show his split-half numbers at r=.50. Because once he does that, we know EXACTLY how much regression toward the mean to apply. As it stands, his numbers sit there, a great amount of research, but unused.
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