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Friday, September 10, 2010
Felix v CC
A GREAT idea by Poz.
I decided to look at Sabathia vs. Hernandez start by start since the beginning of the year. Like I say at the top, there’s no point to this. I’m not trying to PROVE anything here. I know that looking at start by start is about the least scientific way imaginable to compare the two pitchers. Still: I thought it would be fun to look at their starts, and simply pick who pitched better each time out. Then, at the end of the year, we total ‘em up, see who won … heck, it makes for a fun blog post if nothing else.
...So Hernandez is winning the season 17 to 12, which is pretty decisive.
...But if there’s one thing I hope this little thought experiment does, I hope it makes clear that the mysterious numbers that some people rip — WAR, FIP, xFIP and so on — these things are grounded in what ACTUALLY HAPPENS in baseball games. They’re not just throwing darts in an alley at midnight. There’s a reason that Hernandez has better numbers in all those crazy stats. It’s because game in and game out Hernandez has pitched better than Sabathia.
Great stuff, right? Now, let’s take it to the next level. Take Felix’s first start, and compare it,head-to-head, against each of Sabathia 30 starts. Say he wins 3 and loses 27, so that start is worth 0.100 wins. Repeat with Felix’s second start and so on. Add them up.
In this way, rather than doing what Joe did, which could have allowed some flukes in there (like CC’s best start pitted against Felix’ best start, and Felix being better, so Sabathia gets 0 wins), he’s up against each of Felix’s start (basically his average start).
Someone want to try this?
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