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Monday, June 07, 2010
Fantasy FIP
My response to an article on ESPN:
The difference between same-season ERA and same-season FIP is due to the following:
1. Events on batted balls in play
2. Sequencing of all eventsInsofar as #1 is concerned, while there is some level of pitcher ability, it is dwarfed by good/bad breaks, parks, and fielding. So, when we look at batting average on balls in play, the noise (relative to the pitcher’s skill) simply takes over. You need over a thousand balls in play to see some pitcher skill in there. That’s why, for a short time period (under 2 years), you would know more by ignoring it altogether, than using it completely.
This is very unlike say K per PA, where you just need 100 PA or so for the pitcher’s skill to start coming through in the metric.
As for #2, again, there is so little skill in terms of a pitcher being able to control the sequencing of events that it’s better to think in terms of the individual components (K per PA, BB per PA, HR per PA, etc), than to rely on the amalgamation that ERA is.
As for what we can predict: this is easy. See what has happened historically, and use that as your guide. There’s no guarantee, but at least it will give you a rough understanding of the range to expect.
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