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Friday, February 13, 2009
Fan bias in the Scouting Report?
A more dramatic example would be Ryan Braun, who was universally panned for his fielding at 3B, by both the play-by-play metrics (-37 per 150G in UZR), and the Fans Scouting Report (overall a “40"), notably for his inaccurate arm (0 for arm accuracy, the lowest rating possible). However, one year in the OF (-3 UZR), and he looks completely different (52 for the Fans, with 46 for arm accuracy). Indeed, his “transformation” looks very little when looking at the Fans than when looking at UZR.
Braun could be a changed man. Or, his game could be better suited to the OF than the IF, like Soriano or Upton. Cuddyer had a similar change in evaluation based on whether he was in the IF or OF. Indeed, I talked about him a few months ago. When he was in the IF, his profile looked like that of a RF. And in the OF, his profile looks like that of a 3B.
The bias in the Fans is probably shared by the play-by-play metrics. While the average 3B moving to the corner OF would gain a few runs in UZR, this is not the case for everyone. Some guys gain a little, some lose a little, and others like Braun gain an enomous amount. Trying to measure things as seven traits is obviously not enough, which is why you have to take as much care in IF/OF translations using the Fans, as you would from using UZR.
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