THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Expected points by down, yards to go

By Tangotiger, 07:49 AM

SWEEEEEEEEEEET. A man after my heart:

Generalizing for the 1st and 10, between the 25 yard lines, there’s a 3.13 point gap (for 50 yards), so we can say that each 16 yards is worth 1 point. On second downs, regardless of yards to go, it’s around 16.5 yards per point, give or take 1 yard. On third downs, it’s 17 yards per point, give or take 1 yard. On 4th downs, it’s 21 yards per point.

So, we can say that roughly, you gain one point for every 16-17 yards you move down the field.

(3) Comments • 2009/12/16 • Other Sports • Football

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Expected points by down, yards to go

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