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Friday, September 03, 2010
Expected games played following a full season of health
This is for the NHL, but you should have similar expectations for any league: the average will be lower than the median.
If a player is under 30, he’ll play 73 games, on average, in his next season. If he’s over 30, the average is 69 games. Of course, averages are deceptive here compared to medians. If we look at the distribution of games missed among players 20-29, we can see that most players will play more than 73 games:… In fact, the 50th percentile is 78 games played, and 2/3 of players will play 73 games or more. It’s the 5% who missed half the season or more who drag everyone else down.
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