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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Expansion

By Tangotiger, 10:48 AM

Adding two teams will do nothing that you will notice, that’s for sure.  If you have 750 players in the league, adding the 751st to 800th best player will not affect anything you can notice.  Pretend that the average player has “4 units of talent”.  So that the average team has “100 units of talent”.  With 750 players in the league, you have “3000 units of talent”.  You add in 50 more players into the league each of which has 1 unit of talent.  Now you have 3050 units of talent, but spread over 32 teams.  The average team will now have 95 units of talent.  You are not really going to notice.  Not to mention that the number of US-born players playing in MLB since 1969 (24 teams) has not changed!  All the extra players are coming from abroad.  And they are holding their own.  So, in reality, adding 2 teams really means adding 50 more foreign players (Japan has lots of players I hear).  I’ll guarantee that if ever Japan/MLB can have a better transfer deal, you will get expansion in MLB.

Anyway, Maury talks about expansion, and I respond:

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(8) Comments • 2008/08/07 • SabermetricsTalent_Distribution
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August 06, 2008
Expansion