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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Expanding {blank} to {blank} is a terrible idea!

By Tangotiger, 03:26 PM

You get this alot, notably with expansion of teams, expansion of playoffs, expansion of OT (hockey), expansion of extra point options (football), expansion of points per basket (three point line).  Basically, just about anything is a bad idea.

And then, what happens?  Nothing.  Nothing terrible happens.  It might not be ideal.  You might be worse off even (for example, by having 3 points per OT game in hockey, you incentivize both teams to stop playing late in the third period of tied games).  But, it’s not something terrible, something to get all worked up over.  Even stuff I get worked up over, like compensation and free agency, golf, mid-inning relievers.

All of these rules are, at their core, arbitrary and capricious.  Or, as MGL said in response to something else “nature of the game”.  Had we known nothing other than DH, we wouldn’t necessarily clamor to have it removed.  The NHL has 16 teams in the playoffs, and we don’t necessarily think going to 8 (like MLB) or 12 (like NFL) is a good idea either.  These are just… choices.  The define the nature of the game.

Can we expand the size of the goalie nets in the NHL?  Sure, why not.  Is it a terrible idea?  Well, that’s what most people think, but that’s because they are used to their nature of the game, not some other nature.

I liked what Bill James said a few weeks ago: “It’s essentially a struggle about ownership of the game”.  Fans want control, and they don’t want to give that up.  And so, any change is going to be deemed terrible.

(8) Comments • 2010/12/02 • SabermetricsHistory
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December 01, 2010
Expanding {blank} to {blank} is a terrible idea!