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Monday, December 13, 2010
Excellent replacement-level simulation
Phil does it again.
Now, the experiment. For every player in the database, I decided to randomly simulate their season based on their Marcels. Basically, I treated their Marcel prediction like an APBA card, and ran off a bunch of plate appearances. I simulated the exact number of PA that they *actually* had that season, regardless of how Marcel predicted their playing time.
Then, to simulate the uncertainty about the player’s talent, I chose an adjustment from a normal curve, with standard deviation of +5 runs, and added that to the performance.
If Marcels are good, unbiased predictors, and teams were indeed getting rid of players who fell below replacement, then we should see 1,025 below-replacement performances in the simulation, not just in real life.
There’s a few things you can do. What happens if you set the replacement level at -17 runs instead of -20? As for positional replacement level, take that number (-17 or -20), and add the following:
-15 C
-5 2B, SS, 3B
+5 OF
+15 1B/DH
And see if that changes anything.
Nonetheless, for a crude measure, I think Phil’s study nails it.
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