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Monday, April 13, 2009
Evaluating the 2007/08 Forecasting Systems
Dan Matt gives it a go. His conclusion:
--CHONE was the best at projecting most things.
--PECOTA was very close behind but had some systematic biases, specifically for speedy players’ BABIPs, which ZIPS struggled with as well.
I will correct him here:
...and many young players were not projected by MARCEL
As my Marcel page points out:
FAQ: “But, what about a player who’s never played MLB? Where’s his forecast?” That’s simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel’s official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.
There were 5000 nonpitcher in pro ball in USA last year. It makes no sense for me to generate 4000 identical stat lines for the guys who never player in MLB in 2006-08. And so, I make the declaration above. Please, do not let the fact that I have no listed his forecast in the file preclude you from using that player in your tests. Marcel HAS forecasted that player already. I simply choose to not make the file obscenely larger than it needs to be by repeating the same line 4000 times.
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