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Friday, December 15, 2006
Eric Van: Clutch Relieving
Eric Van says:
I calculated the total CluRat for 2002-2005 and compared it to CluRat for 2006, for the 27 guys who pitched 20 or more innings in 2006. Would you expect CluRat to have any predictive value? The correlation of 2002-5 CluRat to 2006 CluRat is .47, hugely significant at p = .01. ... The worse CluRat for 2002-5? Rudy Seanez. The worse for 2006? Rudy Seanez.
His long equation is really this:
(IP * 5.00 / 9 - WPA / pLI * 10.81) / R
where the first part, IP*5/9, simply gives you the league average runs, and the second part, the WPA*11/LI tells you how many runs better than average he was. It’s possible that what we’re seeing though is a bias in the equation. He uses 10.81 as a constant, when in fact it should differ. However, he is likely saved in that a relief pitcher only pitches 1 or 2 innings, and therefore, doesn’t perform long enough to effect his run environment enough to change the runs per win value of 10.81. But, maybe I’m wrong.
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