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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
EqA (TAv) coalescing around Linear Weights
Looks like Colin is flexing his muscles at BPro:
From 1993 to 2009, you can figure TAv simply as:
0.260 + (RAA/PA)*.9
Now, we will be tuning those values slightly to match the batting average for that season, but other than that, that’s the formula for TAv we will be using once the new stat reports are rolled out.
This is exactly the framework wOBA uses. wOBA uses runs above average per PA (RAA/PA), multiplies it by some constant (around 1.15 or 1.20, which is the 0.9 that Colin noted), and adds in the league OBP (around .335 or so, which is that .260 for batting average Colin is talking about).
On top of which, Colin is agreeing with my handling of the IBB. And, it looks like he’s going to do the same thing I’m doing with the run value of each event:
There’s actually one great similarity between the weights at Fangraphs and the current formula for TAv—in both, the relative weight of the various events (walks, singles, home runs, etc.) are held constant over time.
Basically, there’s going to be a great deal of overlap between wOBA and TAv, with just the issue of parks and leagues to differentiate them.
In the end, it’s a question of whether you prefer your presentation along batting average lines, or on base percentage lines.
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