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Friday, February 26, 2010
Epstein on online fielding stats
He said:
I know there is a certain number we don’t use that is accessible to people online that had him as one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball last year. I don’t think it’s worth anything. I don’t think that number is legitimate. We do our own stuff and it showed that he is above average.
UZR had him as minus 19 runs.
Dewan had him as minus 9 runs.
Total Zone is at minus 10 runs.
My unpublished WOWY has him at minus 18 to minus 22 plays (roughly -14 to -18 runs).
The Fans however seen him as above average. Not top-tier, but in the tier below that.
The best you can say is that it’s inconclusive, not that what’s been published is worthless. The Redsox do have Tippett, and he is possibly the best saberist out there, certainly at least one of the best. And he’s been doing UZR stuff for probably as long as MGL, and based on his writings in the past, it certainly looks like the kind of stuff MGL would do. I would be frankly shocked that the Redsox would come up with something different from the rest of us.
But, if he has, and if it aligns itself to what the fans see, then hats off to the Redsox for figuring it out. Ideally, the best system would correlate itself to what we see with our eyes. Not totally of course, but fairly high.
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