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Sunday, March 20, 2011
Dropoff in MLB talent from player to player
Jeremy sent me his data. I separated the pitchers from nonpitchers.
For the nonpitchers, taking the top 500 players in each year, I get a best-fit of:
200 / (order + 36)
That minimizes the RMSE to 0.69.
So, for the #1 pick, that sets his forecast WARP to 5.41. The #2 is at 5.27. The #500 pick is at 0.35.
For pitchers, taking the top 400 pitchers, I get a best-fit of:
204 / (order + 40)
The RMSE is 0.60.
#1 pick is 4.98.
This seems to suggest that the level of uncertainty for pitchers and nonpitchers is about the same.
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Keeping all the players together, I get a best-fit of:
400 / (order + 71)
RMSE is 0.65
#1 pick is 5.53. #900 is 0.41.
If we set the #1 player at 100%, then we get this:
100%: #1
75%: #25
50%: #73
25%: #218
As noted, this means trading a 75 percentile and 25 percentile player for two 50 percentile player is a fair trade.
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As I noted here last week, with regards to the Amateur draft:
So, a #1 pick is at 100%, a #8 pick is at 50%. A #3/#4 pick is at 75%. A #22 pick is at 25%.
The curve is far steeper with the amateur players, which is no surprise. This means there’s a huge dropoff in talent in the amateur ranks, from slot to slot, compared to the pros.
However, it’s not a fair comparison, because in the pros, you’ve got players aged from 21 to 41, while the amateurs being drafted are from a much more limited age class (18-21, and not already signed).
***
In order to make a fairer comparison, the pros should be limited to a more limited age group like the amateurs.
Anyway, fun stuff, and thanks to Jeremy for the idea, inspiration and getting the data.
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