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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Drop in scoring
Jay proposes:
Runs/Game = 26.98 + HRr * (92.41) + DE * (-27.39) + TB/H * (-2.67) + SOr * (-9.33)
That formula will get you inside of one-tenth of a run per game for any year from 1990 onward, and it’s a whole lot closer than that over the last few years
Not sure what HRr is.... I’m presuming it’s HR per PA. So, if we multiply by 39 PA per game, then HRr * 92.41 becomes HRperG * 2.37. It should be 1.40 of course, but hold on. For TB/H, if we presume 10 hits per game, becomes TB*-.267. So, 4 TB for a HR means we are subtracting 1.07 from 2.37 to leave us with 1.30 for a HR.
Anyway, there’s alot of things going on here in this equation, that is hidden like that. You are taking the various components (HR, H, SO, etc) and recasting them into different variables, so you end up not seeing what is actually happening. Walks are ignored. I’m not really sure that we’re getting the insight that we’d like to.
I dunno…
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