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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Draft Order and Major League Pitching Performance…
I know there has been similar research published on the web, but I am too lazy to look it up right now. I took the 1998-2010 draft list from BA and looked at how the various pitchers did in the major leagues, breaking the rounds down into various buckets. It was a quick study and I just matched names from the draft lists with my major league databases. I probably missed 3-5% of the players because the names, especially first names, did not match up exactly.
First I looked at the rookie years for all pitchers in each draft round 1-3+, for a total of 4 buckets. Each round included the supplemental rounds, so, the first round actually has 60 picks in most years. The rest of the rounds pretty much have 30 picks each. Perhaps I should consider the first 30 picks of the 1st round as the 1st round and then the next 30 picks in the 1st round supplement as the 2nd round, etc.
Does anyone know if there is anything special about the supplemental round after the first 30 picks or is it just the next 30 best players and then the second round is 61-90 best players?
For each pitcher, I looked at whether their primary role in their rookie major league season was as a starter (S), a reliever (R), or mixed (N).
The currency I used was my normalized, component ERA (nERC), which is an “ERA” based on a pitcher’s raw stats (s, d, t, hr, nibb, hp, outs, and wp) adjusted for park, opponent, and defense, and normalized to his own league, where the average pitcher in each league, weighted by TBF, is 4.00. I weighted the aggregate nERC in each bucket by each pitcher’s IP. If I used the simple average of all the pitchers (weighting each pitcher exactly the same regardless of how many IP they threw), the numbers would be much higher, as the pitchers who had the worst true talent generally had the fewest IP.
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