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Monday, March 08, 2010
Don’t spent long-term on a goalie
Great stuff from Hawerchuk:
There are essentially 20 NHL goalies signed to multi-year, high-cost contracts, and 42 goalies age 24 or older who have no such contracts. The top 20 goalies have posted a .924 save percentage this season; the other 42 have a .918 save percentage. Over the course of 53 games, that translates to roughly a six-goal difference between the average goalie in each group. That six-goal difference costs an additional $4.1 million per goaltender, which doesn’t compare favorably to the general market for wins:
Before I accept the conclusion (and I was already predisposed to believe the conclusion, so reading this was confirmation bias for me, and publishing this blog post is probably publication bias as well), I need to know the average age in both groups. He set the lower boundary of goalies in the control group at 24 and older. I’m going to guess he needs to set it to 26 or 27 in order for the ages of both groups to match. If he does that, the .918 in the control group probably goes down to .915 or something. (Out-of-my-butt guesses.)
Also, he didn’t note it in this blog post but he’s talked about it in the past, but I presume those are even-strength save percentages?
That said, great stuff.
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