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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, May 25, 2007

Don’t look now ARod, but look who’s overtaken you…

By Tangotiger, 11:21 AM

Derek Jeter.

ARod managed to hit those two dramatic HR, which together combined for +1.5 wins.  In his other 200 PA, he’s +0.2 wins (for a total of +1.7 wins).  Jeter’s top two PA in terms of win impact was +0.4 wins.  In his 206 other PA, he’s +1.5 wins (for a total of +1.9 wins).

Their WPA/LI, which properly reweights all their events, based on the game state (i.e., K more costly when men on 3B and less than 2 outs, GB out that moves the runner over is more valuable than otherwise, etc), but without the extra bonus for leverage, are as follows:
Jeter: +1.8 wins
ARod: +1.8 wins

Jeter’s OBP/SLG is .444/.494, while ARod is .396/.676.  Their OPSwins are +1.2 for Jeter and +1.8 for ARod.  Isn’t that incredible?  Jeter managed to situationally convert his .444/.494 to be the equivalent of .396/676!

(Aside note: Placido Polanco, who last year I called the equivalent to Derek Jeter, in terms of hitting+fielding+position talent level, also has a hitting WPA of +1.8 wins.)

(1) Comments • 2007/05/25 • SabermetricsRun_Win_Expectancy
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May 25, 2007
Don’t look now ARod, but look who’s overtaken you…