THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Does winning a fight in hockey boost your team’s scoring?

By Tangotiger, 12:36 PM

Ah, the age-old question in hockey. Gabriel asks it, and looks for the answer using the indispensable http://www.HockeyFights.com . Can’t wait to see the results… And here it is:

We see a very small benefit to winning the fight, which occurs primarily in the next ten minutes:

Relative Improvement After 10 Minutes
In Goal Differential Next 10 Minutes Through End of Regulation
All Games 0.0762 0.0134
Down 1 or 2 Goals 0.0710 0.0042

So, winning a fight adds about .07 goals. The league leader in fights is close to 20 every year. Presuming he can get a clear win on 10 of them (the rest are draws with a couple of losses), that means he adds about 0.7 goals for the season, which would mean a bit over 0.1 wins. Presuming a win is worth about “one.million.dollars” (Dr Evil), that means you should pay your prized fighter an extra 100K over the standard fighter.

Great stuff!

(16) Comments • 2009/08/05 • Other Sports • Hockey

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Does winning a fight in hockey boost your team’s scoring?

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