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Sunday, September 11, 2011
Does Vegas know how to set the total runs over/under line?
Xeifrank comes in with the great data here. It is only 24 games, so, it’s just something to get people started.
Anyway, 10 games were in reality under, scoring a total of 1 to 5 runs. 14 games were over, scoring 7 to 14 runs.
Indeed, since all the total runs forecasted were all close to 6 runs, and NONE of the games actually scored 6 runs, Vegas would have to drastically alter the odds in order to get an equal number of over and under.
Indeed, if the over/under line was set 1.4 runs higher than what they actually set, it’s at that point that you would get 9 overs and 15 unders, and increasing the line by 1.1 runs gets you 11 overs and 13 unders, which, together, is a mirror to what happened. So, splitting the difference (1.25 runs higher line), and you’d think they should set the line higher by 0.625.
The average total runs predicted was 5.80, while the actual runs scored was 6.42, meaning it was 0.621 runs too low. (Love it when things come together like that.)
Anyway, just a little data point here to start the ball rolling for further research and into past years.
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