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Monday, March 07, 2011
Do we want to know about peak years for HOF?
Adam Dorowski, as per VivaEl:
Essentially, wWAR double counts anything from 3.1-6.0 WAR and triple counts anything at or above 6.1 WAR. You’d total these numbers for players across their entire career and use this as a Hall of Fame comparison instead of just straight WAR perhaps.... “Voters want a guy who was the best at his position for a certain period of time. Quiet consistency is boring. They want Ryne Sandberg (62.1 WAR) and not Lou Whitaker (69.7 WAR)."… If we know anything, it’s that voters for the Hall of Fame talk a lot. But are they holding true to this axiom? Adam’s anecdotal remark aside, I’ve never seen a comprehensive analysis that shows players with better peaks are more likely to get into the hall of fame than players with comparable overall value but worse peaks. So we’re making, what seems to me, a leap of faith here that voting patterns are intrinsically consistent with an argument that’s unverified.
Fair enough. Let me give it a first go.
I ran a simple correlation of:
1. Total WAR
2. Number of 3-6 WAR seasons
3. Number of 6+ WAR seasons
The T-stat was 0.0 for #1, 7.5 for #2 and 18.7 for #3! That is, knowing the total WAR gives us NOTHING AT ALL, if we already know the number of good or great seasons a player has had. The number of great seasons (6+ WAR) is what counts the most.
The correlation is r=.68 based just on these three stats (really, just the two). Data was against players born between 1895 (Ruth) and 1958 (Rickey). Here are some highlights:
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