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Monday, May 17, 2010
Do resigning teams know more?
Matt continues his work on the subject, and he publishes part of the data that I need. Here’s my thoughts:
Two pieces of information that I would like to see:
1. the number of PA or IP in the year prior to signing
2. the WARP in the year prior to signing
The reason is to see if there is a bias there, that perhaps the overpaid players are the scrub players, not the star players. This is critical.
Just for fun, I’ll try to approximate that. I took your list of 48 players that signed 3 year deals. If in any of the three following season they had any season with at least 2 WAR, then I will *presume* they were one of the good players in the season prior to resigning (again, I’m ONLY using this as a proxy, until Matt can generate this critical piece of data).
We had 20 players who signed a 3-yr deal at the age of 30 or under. Of those 20, 13 were “good” (based on the above definition) and 7 were not.
Of these 13 good players aged 30 or under, 8 resigned with the same team, and 5 signed with new teams. The 8 same-teamers averaged a 21.5MM$ deal, for a total 3-year WARP of an average of 6.5 for each player. That’s 3.3MM$ per win. The 5 new-teamers were paid an average of 25MM$ and generated an average of 6.0 WAR. That’s 4.2MM$ per win.
Obviously, this is only 8 and 5 players, so, we’ve got huge uncertainty bands here. But, this is the way I’d like to see the analysis progressing.
The focus should be on players who are considered good and who are no older than 30 (maybe 31). Under this more focused view, though with limited sample, Matt might be showing something interesting.
More work needs to be done.
UPDATE:
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