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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Do players who sign with their own teams age better than those who don’t?
About 3 weeks ago, Matt Swartz wrote an article on BP that concluded fairly emphatically that players (pitchers and hitters) who sign multi-year deals with their own teams aged and performed significantly better than those who did not. To be honest, I did not re-read the article carefully and it is not real clear what the criteria were for the various groups of players.
Here is what he wrote at the end of the article:
What appears to be happening is that teams seem to have some sense of the aging curve of individual players, especially if they are already in their organization. There are probably a variety of reasons that this subset of players aged well, but the team knowledge about the player’s medical and scouting information appears to contribute to the decision to give a player two-year deals. This is important to keep in mind when we hear of a player signing a new contract and look to a projection system to figure out how smart the deal was. Chances are that there is additional information—especially about aging—which teams have that we may not.
Today, he wrote a long article telling us why the Ryan Howard contract might not be as bad as some analysts are making it out to be. One of the reasons he cites that it may not be so bad is that because Howard is signing with his own team, he may age better than we think (using comparable players, the traditional aging curves, etc.).
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