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Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Small team sample size: Do I care that the Tigers are 7-13, the WS are 11-7, or that Flo is 12-7?
What do you think? The answer, of course, is, “Nope!” I couldn’t care less. Or with improper grammar, “I could care less” (which would mean sort of the opposite).
At least with players, as they accumulate current ("recent" actually, since there is no such thing as a “current” stat) performance, we use that to update their projections; with teams, the only thing to use to update their w/l projections are the projections for their players. However, 20 games into the season, updating everyone’s projection on each team is not going to make a lick of difference in terms of the team projections. IOW, if I use pre-season projections for all of a team’s players, that team’s w/l projection from this point on is going to be almost exactly the same as if I used updated (including this year’s stats) projections for all the players. The reason is, and this is important, is that a collection of individual player stats is NOT the same as ONE player’s stats for the same number of PA. Not even close.
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