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Friday, August 21, 2009
Do Batters Swing Too Often in a Full Count?
MGL asserted that they do, so Dave Allen checked it out:
Consider the two counts 2-2 and 3-2. In both counts the penalty for taking a strike is the same--a strikeout--but the benefit from taking a ball is greater at 3-2. Taking a ball at 3-2 results in a walk, while taking a ball at 2-2 just brings the count full. If a pitch is right on the border of a strike/ball a batter has more incentive to take that pitch at 3-2 than 2-2. But that is not what they do. Batters swing at more pitches at 3-2, the trend is true for pitches in the zone and pitches out of the zone.
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Right now it looks like batters are too swing-happy, they should be more selective, and give up some called third strikes in exchange for more walks.
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