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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Sunday, August 21, 2011

Did Jered Weaver sell himself short?

By Tangotiger, 09:49 PM

When Felix signed for 5/78, it was his two final arb years, and three years of free agency.

When Verlander signed days later for 5/80, it was for the same arb/free agent years.

Jered Weaver, essentially an equal to Felix and Verlander in terms of talent, (reportedly) signed for 5/85, but that was his final year of arbitration, and four years of free agency.

So, does that seem too low?  Let’s see.

Verlander and Felix basically signed for this kind of scale:
7MM$
13MM$

20MM$
20MM$
20MM$

That is, their last two years of arb for 20MM$ total, and their three free agency years for 20MM$ each.

Weaver, if he followed their lead, would sign for this:
13MM$

20MM$
20MM$
20MM$
20MM$

And that’s 93MM$.  Is it an age thing?  Verlander is only 4 months younger.

While Felix signed off a huge year, Verlander signed just before his breakout year.  And Jered Weaver had a breakout year last year, plus a huge year this year.

So, I’m surprised that he signed for only 5/85.  I would have expected something closer to 5/93, if not even higher.

(11) Comments • 2011/08/26 • SabermetricsFinances
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August 21, 2011
Did Jered Weaver sell himself short?