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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Defensive Indifference with a 2-run lead and only 1 out
A reader brought up the 9th inning of the Rangers/Rays game.
If you are batting down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th, with 1 out, the win expectancies are:
.117 runner on 1B
.129 runner on 2B
The gain is therefore +.012 wins.
On the other hand, if it was 2 outs:
.050 runner on 1B
.052 runner on 2B
The gain is therefore +.002 wins.
So, defensive indifference with 2 outs is fine. With 1 out? Not really.
HOWEVER… does closing the hole make it ok to throw away .012 wins like that? The LI in that situation was 2.7, so this means that you are throwing away .012 * (10/2.7) runs or .044 runs by letting the runner take that extra base.
Can you save yourself .044 runs by closing the hole? I don’t see how that’s possible. .044 runs in one PA is huge, equivalent to 30 runs per 700 PA. You don’t get that kind of benefit by letting the guy take the extra base.
So, I’d like to know more about this play. Was it really defensive indifference?
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