from Amazon
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Data or no data?
The data tells us that once a pitcher reaches 90 pitches, the performance rate is drastically impacted. In fact, the batting average against (BAA) almost doubles. The data is there to support this.
There’s no data that I’ve seen that supports this. And, seeing that I was looking really hard for this data while writing my Starters chapter in The Book, his statement can only be true under very specific conditions. Otherwise, the statement quoted above, without any further conditions to it, is totally false.
If the count moves to 1-0 or even 1-1, it jumps to over .500.
Where is he getting this data?
At 0 and 1, the batting average is .315. Take a guess at what it is if the pitcher falls behind 1 and 0. It’s .339. You are statistically no worse off if you fall behind on the first pitch.
This is a difference between talking about the “at count” and the “pass through count”. Almost always, you want the latter. The former presumes you already know the PA ended, and so, has a huge selection bias issue.
If velocity wasn’t important, why do pitchers overthrow? Pitching is a mental attitude. If a pitcher throws 98 (miles per hour), but right down the plate, major league hitters will hit it. But, a pitcher who can throw one pitch at 91, the next at 82, and the next at 88 with good location won’t get hit.
Amen. You’d think Jamie Moyer would be an inspiration for a whole nation of pitchers.
Look at it like this-everyone has experienced walking down a sidewalk, right? Let’s say that someone tells you that if one foot hits a blade of grass, you’re done. Most of us could handle that. Now, let’s put that sidewalk 500 feet high where if you step off the sidewalk, you fall off. The task of walking is essentially the same, but the pressure of ‘falling’ brings out different emotions. It’s still walking, but with added pressure. Certain people will be equipped to handle it while certain people couldn’t deal with the pressure. It’s similar to a pitcher throwing a bullpen or in spring training. Once the intensity of a game starts with 50,000 people in the stands and the pressure of a pennant race, then the emotional piece comes in.
Great analogy.
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