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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Danvenport Translations: Strasburg
This blog is turning into Strasburg central, ready to deflate his hall of fame speech into something that places him among the Justin Verlanders in terms of expectations.
Anyway, Clay says his minor league numbers translate to 47K 13BB on roughly 205 or 210 batters. His kwERA (ERA based on Ks and Walks) is simple enough: 5.4 - 12*(47-13)/210 = 3.46. So, his K and BB numbers, while very good, are not lights out by any stretch. His FIP is 2.90, which is excellent.
It’s his BABIP though. 0.221. And that is not sustainable. It’s not sustainable for Pedro, it’s not sustainable for Mariano Rivera. I don’t want to hear about exceptions.
Nothing I have seen has moved me from where I’ve always been, and that is a forecast of somewhere around 75% of the league average in runs allowed. Forecasting at 65% or better is unjustifiable. Forecasting at close to league average or worse is also unjustifiable. Somewhere half-way between Oliver and PECOTA.
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