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Friday, April 15, 2011

Curt Flood’s rest of career

By Tangotiger, 11:36 AM

People will make allowances for whatever they think is right, and will belittle whatever they think is not right.  Take Curt Flood who was “forced” out of baseball after his age 31 season.  He was forced out because he refused to be treated as cattle, a position that he would later be proven right. 

But, he didn’t play MLB, and so, well, hey, a big f-ck you from some historians who will only give allowances to times of war.  If this is you, don’t bother reading this thread.  You have closed your mind, and I don’t care to dive into that mind.

Welcome!  Yes, you are someone who has not made up his mind yet.  You may have biases, but you are not controlled by them.  You will actually let evidence and ideas enter your mind.  Curt Flood, through his age 31 season, had 36 WAR according to Rally.  He also had 6800 PA.  He has three comps who match him closely there:
Rusty Staub
Jim Rice
Johnny Callison

I have never heard of Callison.  He was actually a contemporary of Flood (one year younger).  Anyway, in the rest of their careers, Staub and Rice had about 7 WAR each, while Callison was below 0.

If I expand the comp list for anyone:
- born since 1931
- at least 5000 PA through age 31
- within 4 WAR of 36.3 (32.3 - 40.3)

I get 30 players.  The best of the lot is Roberto Clemente, who even though he passed away at a young age, did get 47 WAR from age 32.  Molitor, Biggio, and Palmeiro were other leaders.  At the bottom were 4 players at 0 WAR or less.  So, he had a 10% chance of not having a career anyway.  The average WAR for these 30 players (setting end-of-career negatives to zero) is 15 WAR.

So, let’s say that Flood’s moral stand cost him a 15 WAR career, putting him at 51 WAR.  Among his contemporaries, he’s with Vada Pinson and Willie Davis.  He deserves more recognition for his playing abilities.  Though of course, he’s going to outlast almost all of his contemporaries simply because if his moral stand.

And that’s a better recognition than from Holy Writers and Unappreciative Peers.

(6) Comments • 2011/04/15 • SabermetricsHistory
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April 15, 2011
Curt Flood’s rest of career