THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, November 20, 2009

Crossover playoffs

In the CFL, they have 4 teams in the East and 4 teams in the West division.  The top 2 of each division is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.  The other 2 spots are filled by whoever has the most points of the remaining teams.  If it happens that you have both spots from the same division, the team at the bottom “crosses over” (for playoff purposes) to the other division.  That leaves you with 6 teams, with the two division winners getting byes.

How about we do this in MLB?  But instead of overall record, you look to see which league has the better record against the other.  So, each league has the division winner guaranteed.  And, whichever league has the better record against the other sends TWO wild card teams, with one “crossing over” to the other league.

Now, we don’t even have to make it that it’s the wild card team that crosses over.  You can let the top team in the AL decide if they want to cross over to the NL (and count as the wild card entry, and give up the DH).  And if they decline, the next best team gets to choose.

If you want, you can instead do “league adjustments” to a team’s W/L record, so that on the off-chance that the 4th best team in the NL has say 99 wins and the 5th best team in the AL has say 81 wins, that the NL team still gets to go through. 

Here’s an example: the AL v NL in 2009 was .558 (and naturally .442 for the NL).  For all 162 games however, the AL had a .506 record (and .494 for NL).  So, in order to line them up based on strength of schedule, you add .052 wins per game to AL teams (and subtract same for NL), or add 8 to the AL teams and subtract 8 to the NL teams.

In the NL, the wild card team was the Cards at 91 wins, which gets downward adjusted to 83 wins. In the AL, the Redsox go into the playoffs still, and the Texas Rangers get upward adjusted from 87 wins to 95 wins.  So, the Rangers take the place of the Cards in the playoffs.

As for who gets to crossover: the Yanks are offered a chance to crossover and play the Dodgers in the first round (NL rules only, no DH).  They decline, and the Angels are offered.  They may or may not accept.  If they decline, it goes to the Twins.  Then the Redsox.  Finally, the Rangers (who don’t have a choice).

What I like is that it treats the NL like it should be treated.

Yes, yes, I know, it’s stupid and silly.  Stop thinking like a baseball fan.  IF you follow other sports (football, hockey, soccer, World Cup, NCAA 64)… if you use those glasses, do you like the idea?  I understand that someone who only follows baseball hates rule changes.  I get that.  Don’t need to tell me.