THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, March 29, 2010

Correlation of record by month and season record

By Tangotiger, 12:55 PM

Pizza gives it to us:

But the two months that are the best indicators of seasonal record are August (correlation of .673) and September (.666). Yes, April record has the lowest correlation with final record. And when I isolated playoff teams, the results were pretty much the same. August and September again had the highest correlation

Great stuff. Two points:
1. April has the fewest number of games. As we know, correlation is linked to number of trials, and if you have fewer games, then you’ll have a lower correlation. Won’t matter too much.

2. A “team” will look very different if it’s in contention or not. The 25-player DNA in August won’t necessarily correlate much with the April DNA if the team is 20 games out.

(3) Comments • 2010/03/30

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, March 29, 2010

Correlation of record by month and season record

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