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Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Constructing fielding spectum values
For those new to this issue, and I highly encourage you to read the many threads we’ve had on this subject these last few years, let me give you some inviolable truths:
1. On a league level, the average fielding CF must be better than both of the average fielding LF and RF. Sure, for some minority of teams, it is possible that the LF or RF is a better fielder than the CF. Ichiro for a couple of his years, same with Crawford, and so on. But, given 16 or 30 teams, that won’t happen. To the extent that it can possibly happen, then chalk that up to a system limitation that will self-correct extremely quickly.
2. On a league level, the average fielding SS must be better than the average fielding 3B and 2B. In this case, it’s not such a hard and fast rule. For some reason, Zimmerman, Chavez, Beltre, Rolen, Longoria, et al are playing 3B instead of SS, presumably because of body type. And, for reasons we accept, Barry Larkin was at SS when Pokey Reese was at 2B. These things will happen to some extent. And perhaps in a 16-team league, it might happen that for a year, maybe two, the average fielder at 3B or 2B will be greater than that of SS. It will be inconceivable that both 3B and 2B are better fielders than SS though. And for 30 teams, I don’t see it possible that 3B or 2B will exceed SS on average. Again, I’d ensure that SS is always better.
3. On a league level, the average fielding 1B must be worse than the average IF and average CF. Sure, you might get into a situation where you have a bunch of Minkys and Erstads around, guys that should be playing 2B or 3B or CF. But, that just won’t happen league-wide.
4. The average IF (2B, SS, 3B) must be better than the average OF. This is true if for no other reason that LH throwers would be abysmal in the IF. But more than that, infielders are involved in more plays than outfielders, and while the OF may have more higher variance plays (extra base hits possible), it won’t make up for the gap. Not to mention that virtually all OF-IF moves are infielders going to outfielders.
Anyway, those are the 4 hard-and-fast rules you should adhere to. If Rally or Colin or me or whoever else does this has any season in which any of those four rules are broken, I’d like to see it. (It may have happened pre-1919 or pre-1901.)
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