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Friday, March 18, 2011
Conference imbalance in MLB and NHL
As you know, the head-to-head matchups of AL v NL in MLB has a decided advantage for the AL teams. Quite stunningly high, if I cherry-pick since 2005: AL teams are .561 against NL teams. If I regress a little, I typically treat the average AL team as a .525 team and the average NL team as a .475 team, so that when they come head-to-head, the AL team would win .550.
By the way, since 2005, the KC Royals are 58-50 against NL teams. Only 5 teams in the AL have a sub-.500 record against the NL, with the lowest being the Indians at .444. Since 2005, THIRTEEN of the 16 NL teams have a sub-.500 record against the AL, with just the Rox, Cards, and Marlins as above .500. At the bottom are the Pirates at .333 against the AL. HALF of the NL teams have a worse record than the Indians (who are last in the AL). A truly horrible setup.
Gabe gives us the numbers in the NHL. Since the lockout, the Western Conference scores 51.64% of all the goals. To convert that to a win%, you simply do: 2*goalRate - .5. So, scoring 51.64% of goals means winning 53.28% of all games. This 53% figure is nowhere close to being MLB bad (56%).
What are the numbers in NBA and NFL over the same last six years?
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