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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Computing Youkilis
We have these pre-season forecasts for Youk:
.279 Oliver
.286 Chone
.287 Marcel
.288 ZiPS
.289 Bill James
I also happen to have MGL’s forecast for him: .288.
His career batting average coming into this season was .289. I don’t know why Oliver has him so low (presumably his league mean is too low). In any case, that’s about as slam-dunk a case as you’re going to find in terms of forecasting someone. Marcel says .287, and everyone agrees.
This year, he is 30 for 74, or .405, which is 2.25 SD from what we though his true talent was. All we can say is that he’s probably better than .287. How much better? The best way to figure it out is to apply Bayes. To do that, you need to know the talent distribution of the league. Without going to the same trouble as I did with Chipper last year, my guess is that he’s a true .295 hitter right now.
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