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Patrick tries to come up with some value.
The one big hole in his valuation is that he keep IP constant. WAR per IP may remain constant in the lat 20s, but IP will go down. As a result, you need to drop a couple of wins in there.
Darren: no. I’m saying that the combination of change in talent and change in usage gives you a 0.5 win drop (after age 28 or so).
You misspelled Zimmermann.
I do think if Jordan Zimmermann was on the open market, he would command 9 figures
misspelling: thanks, but I don’t care.
You misspelled ‘Eno Sarris’ too.
I wrote that piece, but I also think that there are a bunch of problems with it.
It might be best to try and compare Yu to Shelby Miller with MLEs and projected performance and value, since Yu’s never played in majors.
Or, with the major leaguers, actually try to project out their seasons?
I think it worked ok as a rough idea piece, pointing out that perhaps an overall package (posting plus contract) of $90-100 million is not so outlandish for Yu.
Patrick: ack, well, that one should be pointed out, thanks.
eno: I’m ok with the general point, without making it a comprehensive look.
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Tango are you saying that the typical 1/2 win a year drop after a players peak is on the assumption that their IP is constant? Thus, the
drop is actually more if you naturally assume reduction in IP each year.