THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Would you EVER walk in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th?

By Tangotiger, 03:51 PM

At Baseball Fever, the question on the table is whether you would EVER walk in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th. My reply:

I suppose we need to come up with the scenario where it even makes sense.

Let’s suppose that the best-case scenario is where the next batter is putrid: he’s got a .200 OBP. This would be a truly horrible batter… basically, a decent hitting pitcher.

In that case, if that batter sees the bases loaded, he’ll win the game outright 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time, the game goes to extra innings, and both teams will split that. So, that gives you a 60% chance of losing the game, if you walk in the tying run, and face the worst hitter imaginable.

If you decide to pitch to the greatest hitter ever, say a guy with a .500 batting average and you are guaranteed to get two runs on each hit, you only lose the game 50% of the time.

I’m all for hunches, but a hunch doesn’t turn a .200 hitter into a .400 hitter. It moves the needle a little. That’s what a hunch is. Otherwise, it is a fabrication.

Now, what if you don’t have a 50/50 chance of winning in extra innings. Maybe you’ve got a 65% chance of winning in extra innings because you have Mariano in relief, and a fantastic hitting lineup. So, you end up losing the 20% of the time that the crappy hitter will get on base, and the 35% of the 80% of the times the game goes in extra innings, for a total loss of 48% of the time.

So, that’s one whacked out set of conditions that you need:
- the gap in hitting between your two hitters is gigantic enormous
- the gap in extra innings expectation is gigantic enormous

***

Technically, you can walk in the tying run, but you should never reasonably expect these conditions to manifest themselves in MLB.

• Sabermetrics • In-game_Strategy

#1 (see all posts) 2008/07/08 (Tue) @ 16:25

My Answer: No, I would not. Because even if the conditions are right to walk in the tying run, I’d never have the chance to explain why I did it. I’d be fired the next day by most front offices, and if MGL were running the team I’d be fired before the end of the inning

#2 MGL (see all posts) 2008/07/08 (Tue) @ 20:31

Dan, I don’t get your logic. You essentially say, “Even if it is right, I wouldn’t do it because MGL would fire me on the spot.” I know you are being facetious, but if it were right, why would I fire you?

It makes no sense to come up with a ridiculous scenario whereby something would or would not be correct. You can always do that. Let’s see, “What if the batter were a true .460 hitter and the next batter had no arms...”

That being said, as Tango shows, no, it would almost never be correct to do that in real life, as you might imagine.

I am pretty sure that the Bonds walk a few years ago was wrong. I ran it on my sim with all the pertinent players and the sim “said” that it was wrong. Then again, many, if not most, of Bonds’ IBB’s have been wrong, so why not that one?

#3 (see all posts) 2008/07/08 (Tue) @ 21:54

Haha, I just re-read what I wrote and you’re right-- it doesn’t make sense. My bad.

#4 Danno (see all posts) 2008/07/09 (Wed) @ 22:28

Picking up on the MGL “fired on the spot” thing ...

... if you were the home team, top of the 16th, and the Mariners had their backup catcher warming up in the bullpen to face you in the bottom half ...

#5 (see all posts) 2008/07/09 (Wed) @ 22:51

You would be salivating…

And I never said that Riggleman should be fired on the spot for that decision. I only said that there were some things that a manager should be fired on the spot for. This was not one of them.

#6 Dan Brooks (see all posts) 2008/07/10 (Thu) @ 00:28

How about a more lenient case - do you ever walk in a run?

Tom, interestingly, your “When to walk Bonds” chart http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbondschart.html says NEVER to walk him when the bases are loaded - except in the 9th with 2 outs (!), and only when the Giants need 3 runs.

So, if the bases are loaded, Bonds is up to the plate (representing the go-ahead run), by your math, it makes more sense to walk him, concede the run, and put both of the tying runs into scoring position than it does to face him.

I just thought that was an interesting anomaly in the chart.

#7 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/07/16 (Wed) @ 11:38

Mike Fast:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/would-you-walk-in-the-tying-run/

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Would you EVER walk in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th?

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