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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Wind Patterns Affecting Stats

By Tangotiger, 10:36 AM

Yet another in the category of insightful, easy-to-digest, but heavily-researched articles.  Lots of great researchers out there who roll up their sleeves to bring great ideas to the masses.  This is what sabermetrics needs.


#1    Joe Arthur      (see all posts) 2007/01/23 (Tue) @ 20:16

I don’t think we have learned anything clearly yet.

The article to which you linked discusses pitchers apparently helped or hurt by the wind. However, while Chris’s initial article noted that “Hit Tracker’s estimates suggest it isn’t uncommon for wind to increase or decrease a fly ball’s distance by 40 feet or more”, nonetheless that article found little evidence that the beginning of game wind conditions explained much about the likelihood of a flyball becoming a homerun [N.B. that Chris’s major league HR/FB percentage must count all home runs in the numerator, including those with line drive trajectories, which accounts for 10% of HR].

Certainly I find the implications of the data reported in the initial article implausible, but especially if you accept those implications, this new article means nothing because of the small sample sizes.


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