THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Oh, and I wish someone would change the rules.  It’s ridiculous that Dwight Evans and Keith Hernandez, among others, are not on the ballot every year.

The silly rules make it that at least 5% of voters THIS YEAR must agree that he is a HOF for the other 95% of voters NEXT YEAR to change their minds.

How about if I’m a writer, and I want to decide for myself if I want to change my mind?  The change in rules I propose is simple.  Have an accompanying ballot that says “I don’t want to see his name on the ballot ever again”.  If you get at least 25% “absolutely never” votes, you take him off the ballot.  (Or, if you want to have a good ballot, make it 50%.) Otherwise, he remains on the ballot.

At least this way, the really good players, like Orel Hershiser and Eric Davis can live on for a few years.  Hershiser was a great pitcher until he turned 30, and Eric Davis had his share of injuries.  How many writers would say “absolutely never” to Hershiser?  He’s a “he was good, but I don’t think good enough” candidate.  He’s a guy that you’d like to consider again.

I agree that it doesn’t look like Rice is now on a successful trajectory.  But Joe Sheehan thinks Rice will make the Hall, probably in 2009:  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5801. His conclusion is based on the weak field of new candidates over the next three years, a factor that your analysis doesn’t—and the voters really shouldn’t—take into account.  He may be right—the writers aren’t likely to let a year pass without electing anyone.

Tango:  I think you’ll like the strong case he makes for Raines, who he expects to be badly shortchanged by the writers .....

A comparison of Dewey and Rice:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/01/mixed_up_sox.php

And my comments, which I repost here:

Dewey was in three all-star games, and Rice was in 8. If I remember right, Dewey had many seasons where his second-half was better than his first-half. And, managers love those first-half stats.

As well, Rice’s peak coincided with Fenway’s peak as a hitter’s park. Fenway was no more friendly a hitter’s park than the mid-to-late 70s. That is, for whatever reason, alot more runs were scored in Redsox games at Fenway than Redsox games away from Fenway. This only makes sense if:
(a) something about the park changed, or
(b) the players who played in Fenway those years were very unrepresentative than in other Fenway years
(c) pure luck

Finally, Jim Rice spent most of his career as a #3/#4 hitter. Dewey hit in every spot in the order, mostly second and 6th. But also a healthy number of 7-9 games.

Next year, we’ll figure out if Dewey retains the title of nonpitcher most deserving of the HOF, or if that title will pass on to Tim Raines.