from Amazon
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Will A-Rod Win a World Series?
Nate has a quick look at ARod’s Chances of Winning the World Series. It’s based on the likelihood that he will always be on one of the best teams in the league, which I think is being optimistic. It also assumes that such a team will have a 1-in-8 chance of winning the World Series, if it makes it into the playoffs, which is definitely pessimistic.
The continual use and misuse of WARP disappoints me. WARP doesn’t measure what it purports it does. Don’t get me started.
Anyway, I’ve got the chance of a true 97-win team winning the World Series to be 14%, a 92-win team winning the World Series as 9%, and an 85-win team at 3%. If we give him odds for the next 8 years of 14%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 7%, 6%, 5%, 4%, that gives us the Odds of him winning in at least one of those years as exactly 50%.
Completely different ways of looking at it. And Nate and I end up with the exact same results. Is Vegas taking any action?