THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

In a tied game in extra innings, the only way anyone gets to go home is to score a run. Calling borderline pitches a strike instead of a ball reduces the chance this occurs. If an ump wants to get home sooner, he needs to call a strike zone more favorable to the hitter, not the pitcher.

Yes (#1), that is what is so funny.  This is a prime example of TV commentators saying stupid things that if they thought about for more than a millisecond, they might actually realize is stupid.

Before someone says, “Well, if it will make the batter swing more, they might get more hits or HRs to hasten the game,” while that may be marginally true, obviously you will score fewer runs if the umpire is calling a larger zone and not more runs.  You will also hit less HR and get fewer hits because you will be in pitcher’s counts more, the pitcher will pitch out of the stretch less often, and you will be forced to swing at bad pitches less often.

Now, if the visiting team scores in the top of an inning, then it is a different story of course…

While the logic is faulty, perhaps the umps are using the same logic.  I wouldn’t be surprised if you did a poll of umps that you’d find that they have one “get the game moving” tactic that they use for get-away-day blowouts and they unthinkingly use the same tactic for extra-inning marathons that they want to get moving.

Also, by being more lenient with the strike zone, maybe umpires think they might not have to endure as many pitching changes or long at bats, which might be the particular parts of the game that get to them after 6 hours.  Those probably aren’t true either, but at least they’d have a reasonable plan to make the game more palatable to themselves.

To be fair, those announcers in question had to talk about baseball for 4-5 straight hours (actually I would love to do that).  They are likely just getting tired and saying the first thing that comes to mind.  Even if what they said is illogical and hasty, you shouldn’t be so hard on them in this instance.

Well let’s check. Unintentional walks per PA in extras, 2001-2008: 0.082

Unintentional walks per PA in regulation, 2001-2008: 0.078

Now that’s not the only factor at work here, but it certainly doesn’t look like umps are doing what is suggested here.

Let’s narrow it down to visiting teams only:

INN BB_RT K_RT
EXTRA 0.0788 0.1820
REG 0.0753 0.1739

Again, I’m not seeing it.

Colin, I don’t doubt that umps call the game pretty much the same in extras as they do in regulation.  That didn’t even occur to me.  I watch enough games to realize that umps are professional and are not going to make a mockery of the game just so they can go home (or whatever they might think they are doing).

However, as I am sure you know, if you want to “evaluate” umps, you can’t just compare stats in regulation and extras, as the pool of batters and pitchers is different, not to mention the fact that the batters and pitchers themselves might be doing different things in extras.

Nick, “to be fair?” Are you kidding?  If I made a list of illogical, stupid, and incorrect things that TV commentators say during every broadcast from inning one to inning last, that list would be mighty long.

I just thought it was funny when I was watching that game.  Both my friend and I said, “How is that (calling more strikes) going to speed up the game?  It is tied!  Someone has to score!  Maybe the umps can call every pitch a ball until a run scores on a walk!”

You’re right MGL.  I don’t know why I said that.  I have to deal with Al Hrabosky every night saying that it’s bad for Colby Rasmus to hit homers for some reason.  So I understand how stupid announcers can be. 

I guess I just don’t like ripping on announcers for making the same mistakes that most people do.  Especially as they really aren’t supposed to provide analytical insight; they are just supposed to keep the game more enjoyable to watch.

Still, you’re right that this is a pretty funny misconception.

#3 Craig mentioned the “get the moving” tactic that they (umps) use for get-away-day blowouts” ... is there really a difference in how umps call games and/or how teams play in get-away-day blowouts versus normal-day blowouts?  To use an example, lets say it is a Tuesday, 2nd game of a 3-game series, and the score is the home team up 6-0 after 6 innings.  Now compare this to a Wednesday day agme, last game of a 3-game series and keep everything exactly the same - same pitchers, teams, score, situation, umps, stadiums, fans, weather, etc. etc. 

The claim (not necessarily by Craig, but what I have surmised others, including broadacasters and players to say from time to time) seems to be that the Wednesday get-away-game would have a speedier last 3 innings, more strikes called and fewer runs scores than the Tuesday game.  But I have a hard time believing this is true without any data.  So, anyone got data?

King, I doubt that it is true, and if it is, it is probably de minimus with little effect on run scoring.  An umpire is just not going to be “unprofessional” by calling obvious balls strikes.  I think that the umpire also realizes that unless he calls a ridiculous strike zone, which he won’t, he is not going to have much effect on the time of game.  Maybe subconsciously they call slightly more strikes when everyone wants to go home, but even then, I doubt it has a significant effect on run scoring.