THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Maybe it’s just me, but Todd Helton seems like an obvious choice.
He’s still a productive hitter, just as Manny was two years ago, but he’s a 33-year-old first baseman. There’s a significant chance that he won’t be productive enough to justify even half of the salary he will be collecting by 2011. I like Helton, but if I were a GM I wouldn’t touch that contract.

Fun read from Manny here, including this gem
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/04/23/070423fa_fact_mcgrath?printable=true

“I said, ‘Manny, let me ask you something. I was just wondering why you get back in the batter’s box after ball four.’ He said, ‘I don’t keep track of the balls.’ He said, ‘I don’t keep track of the strikes, either, until I got two.’ Then he said, ‘Duke, I’m up there looking for a pitch I can hit. If I don’t get it, I wait for the umpire to tell me to go to first. Isn’t that what you’re paying me to do?’ ”
...
In 2003, [Bill] James identified fifty-three instances in which Red Sox players had demonstrated a game-altering failure to hustle; twenty-nine of them involved Ramirez. He also concluded that Ramirez was the team’s second-sloppiest fielder. (A Times column last month underscored this point, quoting an analyst who said, “Manny is at the far end of the as-bad-as-you-can-get-in-the-field spectrum.”) In theory, playing defense and hustling are also things that he is paid to do, and in the fall of 2003 the new management, convinced that Ramirez’s twenty-million-dollar salary was an albatross, placed their best hitter on irrevocable waivers, asking nothing in return for any team’s willingness simply to take him (and his contract) off their hands.

His I-dont-care-about-the-count approach is similar to the anecdote of Beane and Dykstra in Moneyball.  Whereas Beane tried to outhink the pitcher, Dykstra just waited for his pitch.  While I’d like to think that the batter should be more aware of the data, it’s likely probable that there’s a group of players in which it wouldn’t help at all.

I’m skeptical of the ‘Manny didn’t hustle’ stuff, although I hardly ever see him play. Some players are sort of awkward and slow, and give such an impression. Another one is his namesake, Aramis Ramirez, who I see play over 100 times per year.

As far as Manny’s comment about not paying attention to the count until there is 2 strikes---if you read what he said closely, it does not equate to lack of discipline, in any way.

David:  I agree.  I think the “Manny hustle” thing is overrated.  And speaking of LF in Boston.  I was watching the Angel/Sox game live yesterday when the “Pizza Incident” happened.  Jerry Remy (Bosox announcer) is hilarious.  Here’s a link to the NESN broadcast and it’s FUNNY.

Whoops; no link above!  Here it is:

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/some-morning-fun-time-at-fenway-park-252856.php

David, I did not take it as lack of discipline at all.  It’s simply his approach.  Though, I have to believe he knows when it’s a 3-0 count.  Then again, he swings at 12% of his 3-0 counts, while the MLB average is 5%, according to b-r.com (I seem to remember the league average was around 9%… maybe I’m thinking of something else).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirma02.shtml

When Manny puts the ball in play on 3-0, he hits .474 with an .895 SLG.  I think he knows what he’s doing.  I see MGL started a thread on hitting 3-0.  Its certainly something you need to do now and then to keep the pitcher honest.

Can we tell how often he swings 3-0 from B-Ref though?  If he fouls it off, it just goes into the 3-1 box, but maybe I’m not looking in the right place.  B-ref makes improvements faster than I can learn how to use them.

On the “after 3-0”, which means what happens in his eventual PA once he’s at 3-0, he’s 381/842/698.  This includes a sh-tload of IBB.  If we remove those, his OBP goes down to 791.

The league average is 296/725/496:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/hitting_by_count/

Overall, Manny’s OBP is about 70 points above league average, and his OBP on 3-0 has also around the same gap.  Overall, Manny’s SLG is almost 200 points above league average, and his SLG on 3-0 has a similar gap.

For someone who doesn’t (consciously) know the count, he certainly performs like he does.

Even before your calcs, I seriously doubted that Manny did not know the count while batting.  It is not possible to be that successful without knowing the count.  Think of it this way.  If Manny didn’t know the count and could hit as he does, what would we hit if he paid attention to the count?