THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

love love love this story.  i’m not going to predict he’ll have future success; i’m just going to enjoy it while it lasts.

82games.com is my go-to site for advanced basketball stats.  They last updated their stats on 1/29 and Lin had a rating of +11.7 (I believe the unit is points-above-average/100 possessions).  So, even before his recent starting streak, he was an effective player (in about 4% of the Knicks minutes).  Anxious to see it updated with this recent week worth of games.

For reference, my rule of thumb is +5 to +10 is All-star, +11 to +15 is the top handful of players who should be in the MVP discussion, and +16 or more is a legendary season.

Good for Lin. Finally the Knicks get a lucky break. I think the GM and the head coach were on their path of getting tossed out from NY.  For someone who follows basketball it’s gonna be interesting to see how, Amare and Carmelo, their 2 highly overpaid “stars” will fit back into their rotation. It’s kinda funny because Knicks fans were getting super frustrated with Amare and Carmelo performances, especially with Amare’s. Although the Harvard grad did say that their head coach is an offensive genius. I hope it all works out for him and the team

I don’t follow basketball, so I’ll likely miss any shortcomings in this piece, but this post by Ed Welland was recommending Lin before the 2010 draft.

http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

And to think, the Golden State Warriors remain terrible and have been for nearly 20 years, they are located in an area with a sizeable, wealthy Asian population, they had Lin on their roster for a year...and they never bothered to really play him and find out if this phenomenon (and the ensuing financial bonanza for the team) could’ve happened for their team.

I’m not a basketball guy, but my father-in-law is a huge G-town fan.  Had the chance to see Lin play in DC when Harvard played the Hoyas with him (Lin’s senior year, I think).  I was extremely impressed then.  He kept Harvard in the game up to the half pretty much on his own.  G-town obviously had the deeper team and bench in the end, but I left the game only remembering his play.

A video of ALL of his points against the Lakers:

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/02/11/here-are-all-of-jeremy-lins-38-points-against-the-lakers-and-metta-world-peaces-hilarious-lin-comments/

Good job to whoever did the video.  Wonderful to watch.  Hopefully, NBA doesn’t take it down, because it’s great.

I also got to see Lin play in person in college, when Harvard played Seattle U. at KeyArena.  He was like a man among boys.  Seattle U. had a player named Charles Garcia who was supposed to be NBA ready and Harvard made him look not even Ivy League ready, which is saying something.  (By coincidence, the very week Lin is getting all this attention, Charles Garcia was quietly suspended by the NBA Development League for violating its drug policy.) Lin had a bunch of turnovers, which I think he’ll always be prone to, but took only good shots and made some outstanding passes in traffic, plus had a bunch of steals.  But the most impressive thing was what we’re seeing now with the Knicks, the eyes that seem to be able to take in the whole court as he brings the ball up.

The real question is how does someone like this go undrafted?  What are scouts looking for that Lin does not have, and more important, what does Lin have that scouts didn’t see?  Height? race? etc.

How many more Lins are out there?

I almost wish there were another league with a height cap of 6 ft 5 in.  I suspect a basketball league which greatly increases the talent pool by limiting the height would be very entertaining

NBA I think has two rounds only.  I think it’s easy to see in that case why he would go undrafted.

Two rounds only and they draft from the entire world.  On the other hand, there are often fewer openings in the league than the number drafted, which is why a large number end up playing in Europe for a year or two.  The number of actual graduating seniors from US colleges is actually tiny each year, because of the emphasis on “one and done” sophomores and Europeans.

Has any one done any work on when basketball players peak?  Teams may be selling seniors short in draft given their extra years of free development.

Nate on Lin:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/

Would love a tango guess at lin’s actual talent

I ran the numbers that go into my basketball win shares stat.  Before last night’s game, which probably knocked him down a bit, he had the best production rate of anyone except for Lebron James.

It’s a fascinating story.  It’s increasingly likely that he really is a good player, and amazing how pretty much everyone missed it.

Can’t wait to see how the rest of the season plays out.

It is a great story.  But in the discussion over at APBR, it’s pointed out that Lin put up his great numbers against 3 of the worst defenses in the league (and a tired Lakers team playing back-to-back on the road).  And looking at both his NBA and college stats, it’s clear he’s at best an average free throw shooter and a poor 3-point shooter.  How many 6-3 players have been major offensive forces without being a strong outside shooter?  (Honest question—I don’t follow basketball much.) It seems to me Nate should have taken these factors more into account, as opposed to looking only at how unusual Lin’s 4-game performance was.

"But in the discussion over at APBR, it’s pointed out that Lin put up his great numbers against 3 of the worst defenses in the league (and a tired Lakers team playing back-to-back on the road).  “

That’s true.  But how many other players did what he did against a similar schedule?  I’m guessing not many, and of those that did, they were all-star caliber players.

I do believe his stats will regress.  And who knows what will happen when the Amare and Carmelo returns to the lineup.  Still, it is a great story and I’m enjoying it as much as I can right now!

But how many other players did what he did against a similar schedule?

Not many, I’m sure.  But also 3 of the 4 were at home, and the only away game was against the worst team in the league.  And his team’s 2 highest usage players were injured, boosting Lin’s usage rate far higher than it will remain.  Obviously you can’t control for all of that in the kind of analysis Nate did—but it should have made Nate tread more carefully, IMO.

More importantly, we have a lot more information about Lin than these four games.  If the Knicks had discovered Lin on a remote island and plugged him into their lineup, then all we could do is extrapolate from these few games.  But Lin’s college record is surely relevant, and his Harvard statistics aren’t overwhelming.

You’re exaggerating.  MIN is 13-15 (they would have been 14-14 if not for the loss to the Knicks), and they have a +1 point differential.  FAR from the worst team in the league.  Maybe you had the Wolves confused with the Hornets?

I don’t disagree with your overall comments though.

It’s also possible that Lin maintains his productiveness when Stoudamire and Anthony return.

Lind strengths are penetration, getting near the basket and kick outs.

Could be a lot of easy baskets for Amare and shots off the pass for Carmelo.

AS and CA have struggled with creating their own shots. That problem may be solved. Lin’s PPG may go down when they return, but his AST may go up.

Rajon Rando, Derrick Rose, and Allen Icerson are PG’s whose names come to mind as guys that aren’t great outside shooters.

Lin does not have strong physical tool. He isn’t strong shooter. He didn’t come from basketball university.
What he has is great basketball smarts and vision, he can see and instinctively analyze the whole court. Something like that can be seen only in games.

KP/19:  The one away game in Lin’s streak was Washington, my local team.  If there’s a worse team out there, we’d love to hear about it!

20/21:  I don’t disagree that Lin could prove to be a very good or even excellent PG, in terms of making his team better.  But then Nate’s exercise—players with 20 points, 50% shooting, and 6 assists—is largely irrelevant, since that’s not the profile of the kind of PG he might be.  I don’t see him averaging 20+ PPG. 

Circle:  do you think Lin will be able to penetrate this well in the long-term, as he faces better teams and is defended by better players?  I’m wondering if smarts and vision is enough to allow this kind of penetration.  He already has a turnover problem, and that could get worse…

Guy, I forgot about Washington.  But you forgot about the Knicks win at Minnesota on Saturday night.

What he has is great basketball smarts and vision, he can see and instinctively analyze the whole court. Something like that can be seen only in games.

1. He’s physically bigger than most PGs.
2. He’s physically stronger than most PGs.
3. He’s still quick, agile, with good body control.

He takes players off the dribble and creates shot, but he also plays the pick-n-roll game.

I think the case could be made that his primary strengths are his physical attributes not his mental capacity. If he were black, we’d be talking about athleticism. Since he’s Asian, well obviously he’s doing spatial computations as he’s bringing the ball down the floor.

I’m not saying it’s racism, I’m saying it’s how we think because of generalities, stereotypes, etc.

I also notice that this isn’t 1992 and there’s no place in current NBA for Steve Kerr or other “good shooting” point guards. The position has become a “take it to the basket” position. Make the basket, get to the free throw line, or dish it off.

Circle:  do you think Lin will be able to penetrate this well in the long-term, as he faces better teams and is defended by better players?  I’m wondering if smarts and vision is enough to allow this kind of penetration.  He already has a turnover problem, and that could get worse…

You mean when he’s guarded by Kobe or LeBron? Probably not, but then those guys aren’t guarding Carmelo now. If LeBron can shut down Derrick Rose, he can shut down Jeremy Lin.

I see him Lin becoming the “Rajon Rando” of the Knicks (without the defense, but no one plays defense in D’Antoni’s system). He’s not the leading scorer, the best rebounder, but he plays well the team flourishes ... when he doesn’t play well, he stinks. Well, since it’s a NY team, lets just say I see Lin as “the straw that stirs the drink”.

I don’t think he’s going to be a 25-8-5 guy, but I think he could be a 18-7-5 guy, which has very good value at the PG position.

Guy, I forgot about Washington.  But you forgot about the Knicks win at Minnesota on Saturday night.

No, I was looking at the four games that were the basis of Silver’s analysis.  And adding the Minn. game would, I think, undermine the case for Lin as a potentially great player.

Since he’s Asian, well obviously he’s doing spatial computations as he’s bringing the ball down the floor.

Well, that and going to Harvard.

I see.  That was not clear to me.

Strange how I forgot the WAS game completely.  The crowd in that game was so pro-Knicks that it felt like a Knicks home game from watching the highlights.

Well, that and going to Harvard.

True. If he were white, the same thing would likely be said in regards to him being smarter than everyone else.

My point is that he’s out “physicallying” other point guards as much if not more than he’s out-thinking them.

He’s big and athletic for his position. IMHO, that point is being severely overlooked because [1] he went to Harvard, and [2] he’s Asian.

All those crossover and spins moves he’s doing to get into the lane are not “mental moves” but physical ones.

I would not be surprised to learn that really athletic guys like Derrick Rose or Allen Iverson had similar type of “spatial intelligence” or “instinctive intelligence” that he has.

My overall point is that he has very good athletic gifts/talent/abilities for the NBA level, so he doesn’t need to be reliant on outsmarting everyone or tricking them. That was in response to the idea that the rest of the league might “catch on to his tricks” or some such thing, and I wanted to point out that he is simply beating up smaller PGs and take them to the hoop and they can’t do anything about it.

He’ll do the same to Steve Nash, Tony Parker, and the rest of the B-C class of PGs. I want to see him go head to head with Rando ... that could turn into a deathmatch of 1-on-1 to 11. I’m also curious to see how he fares against he quick of the quick in regards to Rose, and to a lesser degree Paul and Westbrook ... when he plays against those guys he’ll be the PG with the lesser ability.

I need to watch Lin play the next time I get a chance.  I generally don’t watch the NBA until the real season (playoffs) start.

Watching highlights I’m not super impressed by his athleticism.  Maybe I haven’t watched the right plays.  I don’t think he’s anywhere near Rondo level-athleticism.  I saw the dunk vs. the Wizards.  It looked like the kind of dunk I could have done when I was 19-21.  I was most surprised that it wasn’t challenged.  Maybe he took the Wizards by surprise.  Then again, they are the Wizards.

I think I have a better memory for obscure players than most.  So for a taller than average point guard who wasn’t highly regarded entering the league, but had a few decent years when given the chance to start, I’ll offer Alvin Williams:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willial02.html

His 4 year career at Villanova looks similar to Lin’s 4 years at Harvard.

Re: Jeremy Lin’s pre-NBA career and stereotypes

http://colorlines.com/archives/2012/02/jeremy_lin.html

In terms of athleticism I’m talking about his crossovers, spin moves, and ability to take the bump on the way to the basket. He uses his dribbling skill, decent first step, and pyhsicality to split defenders quite often ... from what I have seen.

He’s not D-Wade above the rim, but if that’s the criteria for athletic, then few qualify at that position.

FWIW, I don’t think he’s crossing over Rando. Too quick, too long of arms, too great of anticipation.

People have brought up the outside shooting aspect, but really there aren’t many PG’s that are 3-point threats anymore. Steve Nash is on the endangered list.

Interesting look at Lin here:  http://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-lin-shot-chart-2012-2.  From his shot distribution, it looks like Lin has trouble going to his left.  Small sample, though....

For his final shot the other night, Calderon was BEGGING him to go left, but he wouldn’t bite, and ended up drilling the 3.  Watch the clip though, it’s funny… Calderon is d-ing him up at a 45 degree angle.

http://abstrusegoose.com/437

Last night Lin went to his left, dribbles the way down the lane to the baseline, nothing was open so dribbles on the left side going back to the top of the key and then drove to the basket left handed for a layup.

Not going to the left very often and not being able to go left are two very different things.

EVERY defender wants to force the ballhandler to go to their non-dominant side, not only does it force them to dribble to the weaker side, but then upon the shot the shooting hand is closer to the defender (easier to block/defend).

Always someone willing to profit from the efforts of others:

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20120214/PROFESSIONAL_SERVICES/120219960/1072#

And some racial insensitivity.

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/02/18/espns-insensitive-jeremy-lin-headline-chink-in-the-armor/

@36

When I was in high school (early 90s) a HS in our region was named the Pekin Chinks/Cincs (however you spell the word). They are now known as “The Dragons”. I don;t know the origin of the nickname, whether it was something said of the town and they just adopted it as their name, or whether it was intended to be insensitive. Given that it was a HS nickname, it’s hard to imagine that they willingly called themselves that.

I know what the word/slur means and to who it refers to, but one positive is that a lot of people don’t.

If the title slipped by editors because they didn;t realize that it included a word or sound-alike word that is derogatory toward Asians (or just Chinese?), that could be viewed positively ... as in the word is on its way out of common usage.

There are obviously words that are more offensive to others and for different groups/genders. It’s been my experience that women are offended far more by the “c-word” than the b-word, and blacks seem to be more offended with the n-word than mexicans are with the s-word, and honestly I’m not all that certain of the “degree of offensiveness” that Asians have with the word chink. Generally, I have very little contact with Americans of an Asian background, so I don’t know ... but I have grandfathers that fought in World Wars (Okinawa to be precise, and later Vietnam) so I have heard words like “nips” and “gooks”, but other than the HS I mentioned I’ve never really heard the word “chink” used.

It is a racial slur that is still “active” in our everyday language?

I do agree that at the very least it is insensitive.

Interesting comments on that article title, including what may have been the intentional/unintentional use of the word “slant”.

I am going to go out a limb and say that a writer has written that a black player’s performance “shined ...” even though that term (shine) has been used as a very harsh insult/slur to dark-skinned people.

A definitive racial slur is likely on a different level than some of the other words popping up in “jokes”.

If the title is the result of something intentional or someone thinking it is clever, then I hope to see some harsh treatment. But if it’s not I don’t inherently want to see someone fired or swept out of the profession for simply not knowing or not being aware that what they said could be interpreted a different way.

For example, we all know people at work that do not engage in dirty jokes or sexual innuendo’s and say some stuff that they don’t even realize. A very professional junior high teacher told a male student that “if he didn’t pick up his junk, she was going to trip over it”. Obviously, the classroom full of 12-14yo’s burst into enormous laughter and then no one would tell the teacher why (embarrassed). When she asked me about it, and I explained it, she asked if she needed to call all of the parents and apologize. I said no.

Chink in the armor is a common expression, and I really hope the person did not intend it to be intentionally offensive or was aware that it was a racial slur. At some point giving people the benefit of the doubt is going to lead to something other than disappointment, right?

"Chink in the armor” unintentional? That would be a one in a million chance. Regressed, of course…

Given that it was Lin’s “1st bad game”, the odds probably tilt towards some wise@ss “saving” it just for the occassion.

I’m not naive about such things, just really want to be “right” in one of these Benoit of the doubt situations. I don’t want to get to where everyone is guilty until proven innocent, but it’s tougher and tougher.

Benoit = benefit

Gotta love the autofill feature on the phone.

Benoit = benefit? Well, Benoit Benjamin didn’t provide the benefit to the LA Clippers that they’d hoped. Third overall pick in the draft, and had a reasonably long career, but never made the all start team and was generally considered quite a disappointment!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/benjabe01.html

82games.com now has data through 2/15 and his rating is +9.6, meaning it has actually gone *down* since he’s been starting.  And that doesn’t include his most recent game, which was not good.

He does fit in well with the Knicks… for years now, they’ve been putting players out there who put up a lot of points, but are not very good on defense or on some of the more efficiency-related stats (FG%, rebounds, turnover ratio, etc).  Thankfully he’s young, and I would guess he’s trying to do a bit too much right now, so there’s plenty of room for improvement.

It looked to me like the D was filtering him toward their big man and then the other defenders moving to cut off the short passing lanes, forcing him to either challenge the big man at the rim or kick it way out.

In other words they didn’t let him take the PG to the Ron or just have endless dumps to Amare. The turnovers from what I saw were from when he left his feet and didn’t have a shot or an easy dump. My guess is he’ll adjust by either keeping his dribble or trying to draw a foul.

He looked like he was trying too hard to pass rather than score. Small sample of course.

Shouldn’t your autofill have changed “Ron” to “World Peace”?