THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, December 04, 2009

Who is a replacement-level player?

By Tangotiger, 07:53 AM

4-letter chat:

Cesare (Jet City, Washington) According to Fangraphs, Polanco was worth 50 million over the last three years ... does anyone seriously think their valuations have any basis in reality?

Klaw (1:33 PM)
My favorite line on those came from a GM: “Their replacement level is, like, me.”

Excuse me, mr. GM, if I may be so bold, unless you are a young Billy Beane, you’ve been misinformed. From 2006-2009, Jose Guillen is marked on Fangraphs as being close to 0 WAR (while somehow accumulating 1872 PA). Willie Bloomquist, in his career (1857 PA) has a grand total of 1 WAR. Those are the replacement level players.

You may certainly, and possibly fairly, take issue with the multiplier of wins to dollars.

But, 11 wins from Placido Polanco over the last 3 years (according to Fangraphs) is going to be worth the same as the 11 wins from Brandon Phillips (also according to Fangraphs… I’m not necessarily agreeing with that accounting, just putting out there what their evaluations show). Obviously, going forward, the young Phillips is going to (likely) generate more wins than the older Polanco.

Mr Cesare: yes, they have a basis in reality.

Keith: if you are going to quote one side against it (to I presume support your position), then quote the other side as well, to be fair.

• Sabermetrics • Finances

#1 Nick Steiner (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 09:09

I find this especially weird given that Keith basically used FanGraphs WAR to fill out his Cy Young ballot.

#2 (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 09:25

He even linked Chones WAR ranking when talking about his HOF ballot.

#3 weskelton (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 10:09

As one who usually likes to click the links, I was hoping to get one here.

Thanks.

#4 (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 10:10

My best guess is his real issue is with the conversion of Wins to Dollars (which the GM quote doesn’t support, as you point out), but since the comment is snarky, Keith liked it. KLaw loves him some snark.

#5 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 10:11

The above quote was posted in another thread by another reader sans link. I presume it’s a Keith Law chat. If someone wants to post the link, I’ll update it.

#6 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 10:15

I should note that the “market valuation” is based on what the free agent market would bear IF they didn’t have the BA/RBI/HR/Fielding bias. That is, once you establish how many wins Polanco and Soriano, et al, generated, we use the market rates to convert that to dollars.

What the market actually does however is start with the estimated wins that Polanco and Soriano generated, and then (implicitly) subtract a few wins from Polanco and add a few wins to Soriano, because the market has decided to overvalue HR and RBIs.

#7 Rally (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 10:43

I wouldn’t be surprised if whatever GM made the comment was thinking of Baseball Prospectus WARP, under the old system, and either not knowing it’s a different baseline or not caring, assuming it’s all the same.

#8 (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 11:00

Link: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/29671/mlb-insider-keith-law

Post is half way down. Keith does a great job at giving fans long chats, so you should search “Cesare”.

I also sent this link to Keith so maybe he could clarify.

#9 David Cameron (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 12:02

Keith hates our $ to win conversion. He thinks its crazy.

#10 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/12/04 (Fri) @ 12:30

Dear Keith:

According to WAR estimates provided by the Saber Rattling website for the 36 guys in his sample who signed multi-year (2+) deals in the 2009 pre-season:
- forecasted WAR in 2009 = 69
- forecasted WAR in 2010-beyond = 113
- actual salaries guaranteed = 991 million $

That works out to 5.4MM$ per win over the course of the contract.

***

If we presume a baseball inflation rate of 10% per year, then this works out to 4.7MM$ per win in 2009, and 10% higher each year.

If you presume a 0% inflation rate, then it’s 5.4MM$ per win every year.

If you presume something between 0 and 10, then it’s something between 4.7 and 5.4

***

So, exactly what is it that you hate and think is crazy?

Tom

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, December 04, 2009

Who is a replacement-level player?

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