THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

From what I’ve seen the fan projections are very close to Bill James’ projections, possibly leading to the the fans’ general optimism you’ve previously noted.

I think the more forecasts that are posted to Fangraphs, as soon as possible that is, the better the predictions will be.

I couldn’t wait so I just tinkered with the code for your mysql query (changing the years) and ran it on the updated database.

From what I remember, PECOTA comes out in February, and then again in mid-March. Not sure about Shandler. Dan Szymborski is currently chugging out his ZiPS hitter projections one team at a time, and Sean Smith has released his initial CHONE projections for hitters already.

The first pretty girl in the bar gets the most attention…

James is out.  CBS Sports is out.  Chone is out (hit and pitch). ZiPs is ~1/2 out. Cairo for Yankees is here and the rest are soon to come. Finally, my predicitions are also out (I predict that eveyone lays down their bats and hugs instead of playing - can’t wait to see if I’m right). 

If you have the data, I’d run with it sooner rather than later.  In areas where people have short attention spans you don’t want to be the last to show your toys.  And as for whether baseball projection nuts have short attention spans… what was I saying?

Oliver batting, pitching and defense are done, down to rookie leagues. I expect them to be posted in the next few weeks.

By opening day I hope to have it coded for daily updates of in-season projections.

In time for Christmas holidays would sure be nice - gotta have something to do in between bowl games.  Just so long as you don’t make up a new player ID for everyone ... :-þ

I wouldn’t say there’s any time at which Marcels are ‘needed’, but I’d certainly be thrilled to see them sooner rather than later. The more projections to compare, the better, as far as I’m concerned.

Shandler usually puts out projections in Feb, but he makes a big adjustment (mostly PT) in late March

The first BaseballHQ projections will be posted to the site on 12/18.  Shandler’s 2010 Baseball Forecaster book (which contains early projections) starts shipping later this week.  And as noted in #8, the site projections are usually significantly adjusted for playing time in March.

@J. Cross:  I’m like you ... I can’t wait.  Football is so boring and I need my baseball fix in the winter.  Would you be willing to foward the unofficial “running of the monkey”?  I’m at .  Thanks (hopefully) for getting me by until Tango publishes the official one.

Big Mike - No problem.  I just emailed them.

Yeah, if I don’t have Marcels to escape to during my annual holiday visit to the in-laws, I’m not to be held responsible for any injuries or deaths that occur.