from Amazon
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
When to walk Josh Hamilton
Ah, I love fishermen, as I get to eat the fish without effort:
The Book goes into great detail regarding the iBB; the idea is that given a particular game/out/base stat, the hitter at the plate’s expected wOBA versus the pitcher needs to be a certain higher proportion than the following hitter(s) in order for an intentional walk to be the right move.
...
Of course, if you think Hamilton is better than a .400 wOBA hitter versus righties, it changes things. If you Hamilton is a .430 wOBA true talent hitter versus RHP, the ratio of that to Vlad’s .358 is about 1.20. But even though the situations where an intentional walk is called for increases, most of them are still in the latter innings with the pitching team behind, one out, and runners on second and third. Again, in many of those situations the Giants probably be able to bring in Javier Lopez to pitch to Hamilton.
