THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Very nice article.  I would like to see 3 categories of suggestions, like Tango did in his Bonds’ charts.  IBB, no IBB, and “go with gut.” Basically the marginal ones are the latter.  There, the manager can use whatever he thinks he knows that we don’t to make the decision.

What do you think the over/under is on when either manager will issue a bad IBB?  I say 1.5 games (50% chance it will occur in Game 1 and 50% after Game 1).

Someone on the blog asked why teams don’t have someone in an office with a computer communicating with a manager on the bench?  I had to laugh when I read that.  Despite the progress (some people would call it “regress” I guess) being made with teams, there is barely a manager alive that wants anyone telling them how to manage…

I second the idea of having the “go with your gut” category. Too often, analysts just use “yes” or “no” categories even the though the yes/no ratio in a specific category may be nearly equal, indicating a “go with your gut”.

I really like it that you guys used the “grey area” category, rather than act like every situation has a clear yes or no answer.