from Amazon
Thursday, October 12, 2006
When Did Pitchers Become Bad Hitters?
From the beginning, and the gap has been widening. Here are some numbers to consider:
0.098 1916 - 1925
0.118 1926 - 1935
0.122 1936 - 1945
0.128 1946 - 1955
0.143 1956 - 1965
0.142 1966 - 1975
0.148 1976 - 1985
0.163 1986 - 1995
0.171 1996 - 2005
The first column is the gap in wOBA between nonpitchers and pitchers. For example, from 1996-2005, the average pitcher had a wOBA of .167, and the nonpitcher was .338, for a difference of .171.
(Note: for those unfamiliar with wOBA, think of OBP, and you’ll be fine.)
As you can see, decade by decade, the gap has been getting worse. From 1959 to 1982, the gap was pretty stable hovering around 0.144. Starting from 1983, a new level of horribleness in batting took over, and it’s been slowly getting worse.
Is it because the nonpitchers get to hit HR, and pitchers just can’t keep up in that area? Let’s look at BABIP instead:
0.049 1916 - 1925
0.058 1926 - 1935
0.057 1936 - 1945
0.056 1946 - 1955
0.060 1956 - 1965
0.057 1966 - 1975
0.066 1976 - 1985
0.080 1986 - 1995
0.076 1996 - 2005
Sort of. Here we see the gap in BABIP has been fairly stable for a long time. The average from 1913-1982 is a gap of 0.057. Since then, the gap has hovered around 0.077.
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Since the DH era, pitchers account for 3% of PA and BIP. When we look at pitcher’s BABIP as pitchers between NL and AL pitchers, we need to be aware that they don’t face the same quality of hitters.
If let’s say the nonpitchers have a BABIP of .300, and the pitchers have a BABIP of .223, then 94% of one, and 6% (in a “full” NL league) of the other will give us .295. These days, with interleague play, the gap is a bit less between the leagues. Nevertheless, just use these numbers as one set of guidelines when trying to compare leagues.
"Get to hit HR’s?”
What does that mean and what does that have to do with the gap?
Did you exclude bunt attempts for pitchers? How about K’s on a bunt attempt with 2 strikes?
If the percentage of time pitchers attempt sacrifices has changed over the years, that might change the numbers (whether you exclude bunted balls or not).
If pitcher hitting has gotten worse over the years, all the way around, I would attribute that to:
1) More amateur (high school and college) and minor league teams using the DH and bifurcating the pitcher/non-pitcher role. In the old days the pitchers in amateur ball were also hitters (and probably good ones) on high school teams. Now, most high school (and college of course) teams specialize (their pitchers only pitch) and some use a DH.
2) PED’s.
3) For whatever reasons, maybe the advent of the DH, pitchers are not “expected” to hit. Some of them even mail in their AB’s as far as I can tell. In the old days, this may not have been the case.
Sometimes numbers can change drastically over the years just because attitudes and customs change, even though nothing really physical or tangible changes.