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Monday, December 01, 2008

What was Pedro worth?

By Tangotiger, 05:30 PM

In his 4 year with the Mets, Pedro was worth around 9 WAR (wins above replacement). 

He was +2.7 WAA (wins above average) according to WPA, and +3.2 according to WPA/LI.  An average pitcher, given Pedro’s 487 innings for those 4 years would be +6 WAR.  Pedro was 3 wins above this level, making him a 9 WAR pitcher.

If you start him at 3 WAR in 2005, and decrease him by 0.5 WAR each year, that totals 9 WAR from 2005-2008.  Giving dollars per win of 3.3 in 2005, and increasing by 10% every year, the total comes out to 35MM.

So, that’s pretty much what Pedro produced for the Mets: 35MM of performance, compared to the 53MM he was paid.  Unless they managed to get insurance to cover some of that (and it’s very possible that it did), then Pedro was overpaid by 18MM.


#1    Ken Dynamo      (see all posts) 2008/12/01 (Mon) @ 19:01

That’s no as bad I thought it would be.  Since that $18m didnt seem to stop the Mets from spending on other FA or push them in to payroll penalties I would say it was worth it.  Of course I’m also not the one cutting the checks.


#2    Ari Berkowitz      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 11:11

That’s true but his influence on the young pitchers was also a big factor in the Mets getting him.  He was also a big factor in allowing the Mets to acquire Beltran and pursue Delgado through free agency.  This to me is worth at least $15MM.  Just look at the Mets if they wouldn’t have had Beltran, Delgado, especially in 2006!


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 11:20

Certainly, it’s possible that they managed to get 18MM of value from Pedro outside of his own performance.  That is, that 18MM could act as a “loss leader”.


#4    cannatar      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 11:49

The Mets didn’t acquire Delgado through free agency. They traded Mike Jacobs to the Marlins for him.

The main article on the ESPN baseball page is an article by Bob Klapisch, who seems pretty dismissive of the notion that Pedro’s presence had anything to do with Beltran’s decision. I’m not implying that we need to assume Klapisch is right about everything, but he probably has much better sources than any of us.


#5    john      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 12:27

Yes there was definitely some non-performance benefits to having Pedro on the Mets.  I’m not sure what the extent of those benefits are tho.


#6    Ari Berkowitz      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 13:28

cannatar,
You’ve misread my comment I clearly stated:
“and pursue Delgado through free agency” I didn’t say sign I said pursue.  You should take a few more minutes to look over someone’s comments before you jump to conclusions.


#7    cannatar      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 13:42

Ari,
I read your post correctly, I just thought it was a little unclear.
You said “look at the Mets if they wouldn’t have had Beltran, Delgado,” which implies that the acquisition of Delgado was somehow influenced by Pedro’s presence on the team.
I’m a Mets fan and recall the Delgado trade; most people on this blog aren’t Mets fans. I was simply trying to make it clear to those people how Carlos Delgado became a Met and whether it had anything to do with Pedro.


#8    Ari Berkowitz      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 14:04

I’m also a huge Mets fan and if you’d like, you can click my name and it’ll send you to my website which I talk about the Mets a lot on.  I know, the Delgado trade happened on a Wednesday, the day before thanksgiving, I remember that day vividly.


#9    Matthew Bartholomew      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 14:04

What’s the actual value of Pedro helping the Mets try and sign Delgado and then fail? I’m not the most math savvy person, but wouldn’t it be ZERO?


#10    Ari Berkowitz      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 14:11

I’m also a huge Mets fan and if you’d like, you can click my name and it’ll send you to my website which I talk about the Mets a lot on.  I know, the Delgado trade happened on a Wednesday, the day before thanksgiving, I remember that day vividly.

Matthew,
Very good.  You probably aced 1st grade math.  You obviously missed my point.  The point was to show you that his job wasn’t solely to perform but also to attract other high end players.  It wasn’t if he succeeded in the task or not, that’s besides the point.


#11    Matthew Bartholomew      (see all posts) 2008/12/02 (Tue) @ 21:31

Delgado’s job was also to help his team score runs. If he had failed in that respect, no one would argue that that failure is beside the point. If you’re going to argue that part of Pedro’s value was to attract marquee players, you shouldn’t cite instances that added nothing to that value.


#12    Ari Berkowitz      (see all posts) 2008/12/03 (Wed) @ 10:42

What does Delgado’s production have to do with what I said?


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