THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Yeah, I am really starting to like these analyses…

I wonder about the reverse, Pierre sees the Pujols distribution?

Probably a few points lower on the average, and more walks, for a negligible effect as far as Pierre’s production is concerned.  But an increase pitch count for the pitcher, which he doesn’t feel is worth his time.  He’d rather save his best stuff for Manny, Kemp, and Ethier.

Rally:  Don’t you think the change from 55% strikes to 45% strikes would mean a LOT more walks for Pierre?  Or if it didn’t, then you have to think his BA would fall significantly since he’d be swinging at a lot of bad pitches.  Of course, if his strikezone judgment were that bad, I’d expect pitchers would be throwing him fewer strikes already.

Interesting.  This type of analysis could be useful for looking at the effects of a good hitter “protecting” the hitter who bats in front of him.

Brent,

that’s just what I was thinking.  As a twins fan, I’ve always been annoyed with the talk about Mauer being better because he has Morneau hitting behind him.  I’ve always argued that a pitcher pitching around Mauer would only make him more valuable.  He would find himself in better counts and walk more often.  It would be great, though, to see an analysis of what would be expected of him with and without Morneau behind him.